Florida & Alabama SEC Championship Preview

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By: BetUS.com     Date: Dec 3, 2009
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After an exciting SEC regular season, the two best teams in the SEC battle it out for the championship on Saturday.

More is at stake than just the SEC title, though, as the winner of the Alabama Crimson Tide versus Florida Gators game will get a bid to the BCS National Championship in January. That means that there’s a lot at stake when these two teams take the field against each other on Saturday.

There’s a lot to go over so let’s get right to NCAAF betting odds for this game.

Florida Gators -5 ½ -110 -230 O 41 ½ -110

Alabama Crimson Tide +5 ½ -110 +190 U 41 ½ -110

Now, let’s check out a few trends regarding this game.

  • The Florida Gators are 20 and 6 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
  • The Florida Gators are 1-5-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
  • The Underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Obviously the trends favor Alabama, but this game requires a much deeper look into it than just studying trends. Let’s go through each category and then come up with the right football bet for this game.

Offenses

The edge offensively doesn’t automatically go to Florida because of Tim Tebow. As great as Tebow is, Florida lacks wide receiver depth with only one guy, Riley Cooper, catching more than 40 balls this season. Cooper is good, but he’s not great which is why Aaron Hernandez, Florida’s tight-end has 51 catches this season.

Running Back Jeffrey Demps has turned out to be the real weapon for Tebow and Coach Urban Meyer this season. Demps has started to play like Percy Harvin out there. Demps can turn a game around with his speed and often times gets out in space. Of course, when all else fails, the Gators rely on Tebow to rush the ball.

Alabama’s offense is adept at rushing the ball as well although they rely very heavily on Mark Ingram. When Ingram has trouble, like he did last week against the Auburn Tigers, then ‘Bama’s entire offense becomes stalled.

That could be a huge issue for ‘Bama in this game as Mark Ingram is listed as probable with a hip injury. Ingram has been as big of a reason for Alabama’s success as Tebow has been for Florida’s without him, or with him ailing, the Tide might have trouble moving the ball against Florida’s awesome defense.

Then again, Greg McElroy, ‘Bama’s QB has grown into a terrific leader. Julio Jones, McElroy’s huge target, has come to life lately as well. All in all, ‘Bama’s offense is decent, but not great.

Florida’s offense? With Tebow they’re great.

Defenses

This is where the big debate is. Which defense really can stop the other’s offense? There’s no doubt that Florida’s defense can put the breaks on ‘Bama’s rushing game because…uh, oh…there appears to be an issue with that thinking.

Florida is going to be without two key defensive players. Starting strong side linebacker A.J. Jones won’t be able to play in the SEC Championship game because of a knee injury. His back-up, Brandon Hicks, is pretty darn good, but losing a starter in the LB position is tough considering Alabama’s rushing game is superb.

Florida’s D will also be without starting defensive end Carlos Dunlap who has been suspended because of a DUI charge. Without Dunlap, ‘Bama QB Greg McElroy figures to have plenty of time to find Julio Jones if and when ‘Bama decides to put the ball in the air.

The Crimson Tide’s defense is the 2nd ranked defense in college football, Florida’s is ranked 3rd, and is relatively healthy. Dont’a Hightower is out, of course, but the star studded linebacker has been out since late September. The rest of the linebacking corp is in tact which is a huge deal considering the fact that Florida loves to rush the ball with Tebow and Demps.

In fact, stopping Tebow has to be the key part of ‘Bama’s plan this Saturday defensively. Top Tebow and you stop the Gators.

One key to note about ‘Bama’s defense is that they gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl. That almost cost them the game, but when they needed to, ‘Bama’s defense settled down and took care of business in the 4th quarter.

They will need to play a full four quarters of football in order to keep Florida from tearing them up in this game.

Coaching

Both Urban Meyer for Florida and Nick Saban for Alabama are terrific coaches. Meyer has a tendency to force an issue, however, which is one of the reasons Florida was trounced by Michigan in the Citrus Bowl a couple of years ago.

Guess what? Saban has a tendency to not force the issue enough, not take enough risks, which is one of the reasons that Meyer and Tebow trounced the Crimson Tide in last year’s SEC Championship game.

Both coaches are going to need to pay attention to their faults, Urban might want to pull off the pedal here and there and Saban might want to push down on it, if they want to coach their teams to a victory in this game.

What Happened Last Year?

In last year’s game, one simple thing happened that caused the Alabama Crimson Tide to lose. Alabama simply ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. With a 20 to 17 lead going into the 4th quarter, Tebow and the Gators wore down ‘Bama’s defense and put up 14 points against the Crimson Tide.

It’s a technique, using Tebow to wear down a defense that the Gators have used supremely well the past three years. That’s what they’re going to try and do again.'

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