It’s a part of American life to fill out a bracket sheet on the day after Selection Sunday. Right now, a nation is busy comparing seeds, draws, and frivolous things such as the nicknames of the 65 teams that are playing in everyone’s favorite single-elimination tournament. Even if you think you know a lot about college basketball, every March Madness event seems to destroy your bracket sheet over the course of the first weekend. Want to avoid a bombed-out bracket? Keep some things in mind.

* Don’t pick a top-three seed to lose in the first round. The last time a top-three seed lost in the first round came in 2006, when an overseeded Iowa club, rated third, fell to No. 14 seed Northwestern State.

Elite teams are elite for a reason. Don’t think that any of this year’s 14 seeds have the stuff needed to bump off one of the big boys in college basketball. New Mexico is not a weak third seed, either. The Lobos won lots of road games this past season, for one thing. Secondly, their first-round opponent, the Montana Grizzlies, has only one prime-time player, Anthony Johnson. UNM will have too much balance and depth for Montana to handle. Stay away from the huge upset NCAAB betting picks.

* If you want to pick a significant seed upset, your two best choices are Siena and Murray State, in that order.

Siena has won each of its last two NCAA Tournament first-round games, so the Saints know how to deliver the goods in March. Moreover, Siena got the dream draw of the tournament for a 13 seed. Coach Fran McCaffery’s club won the lottery by facing a Purdue team that, without star wing Robbie Hummel, is a shell of its former self. Purdue scored just 11 first-half points this past Saturday in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament against Minnesota. Clearly, Purdue – seeded fourth because of its body of work during the regular season – is about as strong as a 13 seed at the moment. Siena-Purdue rates as a toss-up.

The other potential 13-4 upset is Murray State over Vanderbilt. Two years ago, Vandy lost as a fourth seed to – presto! – the Siena team mentioned above. VU is suspect in terms of its overall toughness on the glass, and Murray State is a hungry, tenacious opponent with playmaking skill at multiple positions. An upset is entirely possible with the 13th-seeded Racers face the fourth-rated Commodores.

* All the 12-5 games are terrific matchups, but the 5 seeds are strong.

It’s very possible that we’ll see more of the famous 12-5 upsets in this tournament, and probably one of them will come through. However, don’t pick more than one upset in this group – be selective. Butler, Texas A&M, Michigan State, and Temple all have very good coaches and play rugged defense. They can and will struggle from the field, but will win games because they guard and rebound. The 12 seeds in this field are really good, but the five seeds are better. Don’t go wild with the 12-5 upset picks this year. UTEP over Butler is probably your best bet.

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