Line Move

The early money quickly came in on the Under as the oddsmakers opened the Game 5 total as high as 189½ and it quickly dropped to 187½ and 187 in most locations. It is not a surprise as the Under is now 3-1 in this series and 5-1 in all six meetings this season.

The oddsmakers opened Boston as a 3-point home favorite for Game 5 and the line has held steady. The zig-zag theory has definitely applied in this series as the loser of the previous game is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS so far.

Despite being the underdog in Game 5, the Lakers are still a -190 favorite to win this overall series as Game 6 and 7 (if necessary) will both take place in Los Angeles. This line is actually a bit higher than the initial series line which saw the Lakers open as a -185 favorite last week.

Past History

Kobe Bryant missed the regular season meeting on February 18th and the Celtics won 87-86 as a 2½-point underdog at Los Angeles, but the Lakers are still 5-2 straight-up and 4-2-1 ATS in the other seven head-to-head meetings the past two seasons. This is a stark reversal from the 2007-08 season which saw the Celtics go a perfect 8-0 against the spread versus the Lakers (6-2 straight-up) on Boston’s way to the NBA Championship.

The Celtics actually lost Game 5 in the 2008 NBA Finals, 103-98, as a 7-point road underdog, but Boston came back and dominated Game 6 with a series clinching 131-92 win as a 4½-point home favorite.

What Happened to Ray?

Boston’s Ray Allen single handily led the Celtics to a win in Game 2. He scored a game-high 32 points after shooting 55% (11-20) from the field. Allen also set a Finals record by knocking down eight 3-pointers including 7 made in the first half alone.

But Allen’s shooting touch has disappeared over the last two games. In Games 3 and 4, Allen has scored a total of 14 points on a miserable 16.7% (4-24) shooting from the field. And he hasn’t hit a 3-pointer since Game 2, going 0-12 from beyond the arc.

Second Unit Shines

The Celtics won Game 4 thanks to their second unit. Down 62-60 going into the fourth quarter, head coach Doc Rivers took a major gamble by beginning the final 12 minutes with four reserves and one starter (Ray Allen) on the court.

Doc’s gamble paid off as the duo of Glenn ‘Big Baby’ Davis and Nate Robinson led the Celtics to victory. They scored a combined 30 points after going 11-18 (61%) from the floor. They played all but the final two minutes of the quarter and if not for their outstanding performance, Boston may not have won that game.

Andrew Bynum’s Knee

Los Angeles desperately needs Andrew Bynum back on the court. The big man has played a huge part in their playoff run this season, but his nagging knee injury has become a major concern over the last two games.

Bynum has only played a total of 41 minutes in Games 3 and 4, and his knee was so bad on Thursday night that he only played 12 minutes while scoring just 2 points and grabbing 3 rebounds. Without him on the court, the Celtics defense holds a big edge which we’ve seen over the last two games with the Lakers scoring just 91 and 89 points.