Let's start with the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, who have won the AFC West but still have to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. How can they do that?

Well,

• They can win this week against Tennessee (a 40.8% chance, based on the interpolation of their +135 underdog money line price and the Titans' -155 favorite price) in the BetUS odds) or tie the game, OR
• The New England Patriots can lose to Jacksonville (a 23% chance) or have a tie.

As for the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, they can clinch the AFC East division title with:

• A win on their part over the Jags (77% chance) or a tie, OR
• A loss by the Miami Dolphins to Houston (42.6% chance) or tie by Miami

• A win on their part over the Kansas City Chiefs (an 86.7% chance), OR
• A Bengal tie, along with a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Steelers (a 56.5% chance) or tie OR
• A Baltimore loss (56.5% chance)

Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot regardless with:

• A tie OR
• A Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the Patriots (a 77% chance) or a tie, along with a New York Jets loss to the Colts (a 67.7% chance) or tie, AND a tie in the Houston-Miami game.

The BALTIMORE RAVENS can clinch a playoff spot with:

• A win on their part (a 43.5% chance) plus a Jacksonville loss (a 77% chance) or tie plus a New York Jets loss (67.7% chance) or tie (basically a 22.7% chance on the parlay, or +340) OR
• A Baltimore win plus a Jacksonville loss or tie with New England plus a Denver loss to the Eagles (a 73.3% chance) OR
• A Baltimore win plus a Miami loss or tie plus a Jets loss or tie plus a Denver loss OR
• A Baltimore tie plus a Jets loss plus a Jacksonville loss plus a Tennessee loss or tie plus the Houston-Miami game has to end in a tie (I can't calculate that high)

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The DENVER BRONCOS can clinch a playoff spot with:

• A win on their part over Philadelphia (a 26.7% chance) plus a Jacksonville loss or tie plus a Miami loss or tie plus a Jets loss or tie plus a Pittsburgh loss to Baltimore (a 43.5% chance) or tie. Essentially, you're looking at a parlay that represents about a 2.6% chance, or roughly 38-to-1, that the Broncos will clinch this weekend, keeping in mind of course that there are about a million teams behind them with 7-7 records.

By the way, in case you were wondering about the Colts and their chances to end the season unbeaten, assuming they are not going to roll over and play dead, they are -230 against the Jets this weekend, with the Jets at +190. That is -210 interpolated, which comes to 67.7% chance for them to win straight-up this week. Next Sunday against Buffalo they could be a sizable road favorite, and I'm thinking the number could be around -400, so you could say that mathematically speaking, they are roughly -125 to win the next two games, although I have the feeling it should be a higher number.

Over in the NFC, the playoff picture is thankfully a bit clearer. The New Orleans Saints have clinched the NFC South and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Minnesota Vikings have clinched the NFC North, the Arizona Cardinals are the champions of the NFC West, and the Philadelphia Eagles have clinched at least a wild card spot, with a chance to win the NFC East.

The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS have a chance to clinch the home field advantage throughout the entire NFC playoffs with:

• A win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (an 88.6% chance) or a tie in that game, OR
• A Minnesota loss to the Chicago Bears (a 73.3% chance) or a tie

The MINNESOTA VIKINGS can clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs with

• A win over the Bears plus a Philadelphia loss (a 26.7% chance) or tie OR
• A Minnesota tie along with a Philadelphia loss

The PHILADELPHIA EAGLES get to clinch the NFC East title with:

• A win on their part over the Broncos (a 73.3% chance) plus a Dallas loss to the Washington Redskins (a 27.4% chance) or a Dallas tie (basically a +400 parlay) OR
• An Eagles tie plus a Dallas loss

The GREEN BAY PACKERS can clinch a spot in the NFC playoffs with:

• A win on their part over Seattle (an 88.6% chance) plus a New York Giants loss to Carolina (a 26.7% chance), or a Giants-Panthers tie OR
• A Green Bay win coupled with a Dallas loss (a 24.3% chance), which makes it about a 3-1 proposition, OR
• A Green Bay tie and a New York Giants loss

The DALLAS COWBOYS will be able to clinch a playoff spot with:

• A win over the Redskins plus a Giant loss or tie (which you would price at about +415) OR
• A Dallas tie coupled with a loss by the Giants

Now I'm confused.

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