TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV

• Pittsburgh Steelers +4000
• New England Patriots +900
• Dallas Cowboys +2500
• New York Giants +3000
• Indianapolis Colts +300
• San Diego Chargers +900
• Baltimore Ravens +5000
• Philadelphia Eagles +2000
• New Orleans Saints +250
• Minnesota Vikings +650
• Carolina Panthers +50000
• Tennessee Titans +25000
• Atlanta Falcons +20000
• Green Bay Packers +2000
• Denver Broncos +3500
• Jacksonville Jaguars +6000
• Arizona Cardinals +1400
• New York Jets +10000
• Miami Dolphins +10000
• Chicago Bears +50000
• Seattle Seahawks +50000
• Houston Texans +35000
• San Francisco 49ers +40000
• Cincinnati Bengals +1400

My observations:

• I admit to being a little surprised that the New Orleans Saints, who are +250 to win the Super Bowl, are going off at more of a favorite than the Indianapolis Colts, at +300. The reason I say it is that the Colts, like the Saints, are going to probably get the home field advantage in the playoffs, but they have an easier chance of it. They are the team that has more experience at the playoff and championship level, and the team I'd give an edge to against New Orleans on a neutral field, with a slight edge afforded Peyton Manning over Drew Brees. Perhaps the perception is that a team like Minnesota doesn't pose as much of a threat to New Orleans in the NFC as New England does to Indy in the AFC, although if you saw the Patriots' last two outings against the Saints and Dolphins, you would start to have some serious doubts about them.
   
• Obviously there are some teams that are being left off the list. Those are the teams that are mathematically eliminated at this point. So it is kind of commendable that the Tennessee Titans are still standing, although they lost this past weekend to the Colts. Can they "win out" and be in the playoff race till the final week? With St. Louis, Miami and San Diego at home, and Seattle on the road, it is not totally impossible that they could be 9-7. And who knows how many teams will be at that mark? Miami, the Jets, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are all at 6-6. Jacksonville is at 7-5, and still has to play Indianapolis and New England. The Titans, who started at 0-6, are still not out of the running for the last wild card spot!
   
• The Arizona Cardinals, who are listed at +1400, should not be written off at all as far as being a potential Super Bowl participant, as long as Kurt Warner stays in the lineup. That Sunday night performance on their part was very complete. What was also important about it was that they beat Minnesota, so in the event they wound up in a tie with the Vikings in the overall standings (admittedly they'd have to gain two games on them in the last four) they would host a potential playoff meeting. Arizona has only lost one road game, though, and that happened when Vince Young engineered that last-minute comeback for Tennessee.
   
• The Cincinnati Bengals have virtually clinched the AFC North title. They have a three-game lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and since they have scored a season sweep over both teams, they would have to lose all four games while either Pittsburgh or Baltimore has to win all four. It would not be impossible for the Bengals to lose three of those remaining games, as they visit the Vikings, Chargers and Jets, so it's the home game against Kansas City on December 27 that actually could loom very large.
   
• How legitimate could the chances of the Denver Broncos (+3500) be, even after rebounding with a two-game stretch in which they outscored the opposition 70-19? The Broncos by no means have any kind of a lock on a wild card berth, even though they are a game ahead of Jacksonville and two games ahead of a lot of other teams. Sure, they could still win the division title, although with a game upcoming against the Colts, and San Diego on a surge, I don't know that I would bet on that happening, even at the +350 price. Let's keep in mind that following that four-game losing streak, Denver came back and beat the slumping Giants in a home game, then played Kansas City at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have little or no home field advantage. If you asked me right now, I'd say they'll finish with a 10-6 record, which is going to be good enough to secure a post-season berth in this group, but traveling in the playoffs will be a daunting task. and that particular game might just take place at New England or Cincinnati, where both teams would be seeking revenge for losing very winnable games earlier in the season to Denver.
   
• The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently 60/1 to win the Super Bowl, which places them at a higher price than the Ravens or Steelers, who trail them in the overall AFC standings. Somehow the Jags have managed to stay in the hunt, although some consider Jack Del Rio to still be on the hot seat if he team doesn't finish strong. Their wins have not come against the NFL's elite; in fact, no one who they have beaten has a winning record. That becomes a factor, I suppose, as they have to host Indianapolis and visit New England within the season's final four weeks. This weekend's game against Miami is no walkover either. Will 9-7 be enough to garner one of the playoff spots? With eight teams still in contention, that's a tough question to answer.

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