In what is proving to be a very stiff
betting prediction, the Ravens will try
to topple the mightiest team in the AFC.
Ironically, it’s also the franchise that
up and left the town of Baltimore back
in the day. The new look Ravens
dismantled an injury riddled Patriots
team last weekend. Beating up on Colts
team that is rested, hungry, experienced
and led by Peyton Manning will be so
much more difficult.If you think that
this is a lofty spread, then look at the
details a bit closer. The Ravens are
just 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games on
the road and they haven’t been able to
beat the Colts, let alone cover the
spread in the past five matchups. That’s
right, the Ravens are 0-5 SU and ATS
against Indianapolis. The Colts
meanwhile are a strong 5-2 ATS in their
last 7 games and 22-3 SU in 25 tries. At
home against the Ravens they’ve gone 6-1
SU in their past 7 attempts as well.
What I love about the Colts is that
they’re an experienced group of
veterans. I can not emphasize that
enough. The Colts have been winning
games every way possible up until their
coach yanked the starters in Week 16 to
throw their perfect season in the
garbage. If you take out the last two
games that the Colts played, and instead
measure their past five “real” games,
they’ve been averaging 28.4 points per
game.
Not to be outdone, the Ravens have
averaged a staggering 30.6 points per
game in their last five matchups. In
fact, the usually defensively pungent
Ravens have been relying on offense. Ray
Rice and the Ravens average 123.9 yards
on the ground when they’re playing on
the road, and the Colts’ rush defense
isn’t that great (113.6 yards allowed
against at home). However, this defense
has had nearly two weeks to dissect the
hole in the Ravens’ offense, and if
they’re any good at their job, they’ve
found it.
Indianapolis -6 vs Baltimore >>
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Baltimore Ravens (9-7) vs.
Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
Saturday, January 16th
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis ---
8:00pm EST
NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis -6
(44)
It’s all too easy to say that the key
to stopping the Ravens is slamming the
breaks on Ray Rice. As he’s proven time
and again this season, that’s not an
easy task. Yet, if there’s any personnel
that’s figured out a way to make this
happen, it’s the Colts. When they met
the Ravens in November, the Colts’
defense swarmed all over the backfield,
holding Rice to just 71 yards on 20
carries and McGahee to 25 yards on 6
carries.
Indeed, Joe Flacco was forced to win
the game. He completed 23-of-35 passes
for 256 yards but failed to get in to
the endzone and threw a very costly
pick. The problem for Baltimore is that
“Ordinary” Joe hasn’t figured out
exactly how to win games on his own. If
you hark back to the 2008 NFL playoffs,
Flacco’s game log breaks down like this:
- Vs. Miami – 9 for 23, 135 yards,
0 TD, 0 INT
- Vs. Tennessee – 11 for 22, 161
yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
- Vs. Pittsburgh – 13 for 30, 141
yards, 0 TD, 3 INT
It’s pretty easy to dissect those
numbers. When he’s forced to win the
game, he can’t do it in the playoffs.
I’d say that the Ravens defense can bail
him out, but if they’ve shown anything
it’s that they’re a whole step slower
than they usually are. Ray Lewis and his
fellow defensive players throttle teams
when they have momentum, and getting up
for a game against Peyton Manning is
enough to put Lewis in to overdrive.
However, Manning is exceptional at
gassing defenses. That’s not a good
thing when you’re the aging Ravens.
