Super Bowl 44 Prop Report

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By: BetUS.com     Date: Feb 2, 2010
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The great thing about the Super Bowl is there’s so much more than the spread and total on which to wager on the NFL betting board.

Super Bowl XLIV between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints is no exception, with myriad proposition bets available to bettors looking for something a little different to whet their big game whistle.

Before we get into some of the more intriguing props, and just for the record, the Colts are currently priced as 5.5-point favorites against the Saints, while the 57-point total would be a record-high if it stays at its current number.

The prop that caught our eye right off the top is the 1.5-time number listed for total rushing attempts by Peyton Manning on Sunday at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. You might be inclined to take the under (-170), but there’s plenty of value in the over (+130) when you consider the pressure New Orleans was able to put on Brett Favre in its 31-28 overtime win over Minnesota (+4) in the NFC Championship Game.

The Saints didn’t get a sack on Favre, but they registered six hits against him, and the pain they inflicted was clearly visible. Favre had one rushing attempt against New Orleans Saints, which faces a weaker offensive line than that of the Vikings in the Super Bowl.

Don’t be surprised if Manning gets chased out of the pocket on more than one occasion and is forced to run; and that doesn’t account for any quarterback sneak attempts that could happen in short yardage situations.

Looking at the other man under center, the over/under for total Drew Brees’ pass attempts is listed at 36.5, with the value on the under (-110). The Saints are known for having a pass-happy offense, but their running game is underrated. Brees had 31 pass attempts against Minnesota, and had 32 against Arizona in the NFC Divisional Round.

New Orleans scored an average of 38 points in the two games, so it doesn’t need Brees putting up in the range of 40 pass attempts to post a big number on the scoreboard. Even if you’re handicapping the Colts to run all over the Saints (and thus forcing New Orleans into a pass-heavy attack), expect Indy to grind out possessions to keep Brees off the field.

Another New Orleans player that presents a sharp play on the under is tight end Jeremy Shockey, who is priced at +140 to get more than 3.5 receptions against Indianapolis.

There’s been much made in the mainstream media about how “pumped up” Shockey is to play in the Super Bowl after sitting out with injury in the Giants’ upset of the Patriots two years ago, but there’s a good chance he won’t suit up once again.

Shockey has been dealing with a nagging knee injury throughout the playoffs, during which he’s averaged two catches per game. Expected to be listed as questionable to see the field when the official injury report is released later this week, Shockey would have to increase his production two-fold to cash for over bettors on the prop.

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There’s a reason the under on the 3.5-reception number is set at -170: Because there’s little value in betting a highly probable outcome at the pro football betting window. Shockey hauled in one ball for nine yards against the Vikes, so it’s a risk to take him to catch at least four passes in the big game. That’s if he actually plays, of course.

Over on the Colts’ sideline, defensive end Dwight Freeney is also dealing with an injury that could limit his effectiveness in the Super Bowl – or keep him out of game entirely. Freeney is in a walking boot because of a torn ligament in his right ankle, and is likely to be listed as questionable along with Shockey.

Oddsmakers have Freeney’s total tackles set at 2.5, with the payout on the over priced at +120. The under is a less-lucrative -150, but it’s hard to cap Freeney to have a good game if he can’t even walk. Our estimation is Freeney will start the game, and will be used as a decoy on passing downs against the Saints.

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