5* NBA System Play of the Month on Heat +3.5 I feel this is a great spot to back the Heat tonight. Miami is playing some of its best ball of the season, having won 3 straight with 2 of those wins coming over the Lakers and Hawks. So momentum is on its side. Motivation is also on its side. The last time these teams faced off, the Bobcats handed the Heat an embarrassing 104-65 loss. Trust me, that one is not sitting well with D. Wade and company. Expect a big game from Wade tonight and for the Heat to pull the upset. Plays on road underdogs revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 25-9 ATS the last 5 seasons, and when that dog is well rested only playing its 2nd game in 5 days, the situation improves to 23-4 ATS the last 5 seasons (85.2%). These numbers are too telling to ignore. We'll play by the numbers tonight!

3* A-10 Tourney Annihilator on UMass +9 Really think UMass isn't getting enough respect tonight when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, are 32-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. And there's more, the 49ers are just 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Atlantic 10, 49ers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Minutemen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Last thing, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6 I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence.

FREE PLAY 1 Unit on Los Angeles Lakers -11 Off 3 straight defeats, look for the Lakers to send a message to the struggling Raptors tonight. Toronto has dropped 5 of its last 6, with 4 of those losses coming by at least 13 points. Plus, the Lakers should be further motivated by a l-point loss at Toronto in January. The last time the Raptors visited the Lakers they fell by 13 points, and this one should end up at least as bad. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lastly, the Lakers are 14-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread under coach Jackson, winning in these spots by an average of 15.3 points. We'll take the Lakers.